ECB Meeting Today


ECB Meeting Today

The main economic event today is the ECB policy announcement at 12:45BST, followed by the press conference with President Mario Draghi at 13:30BST. No changes to interest rates or the asset purchase programme (€30bn/month) are expected. At the last meeting in March, the ECB removed its easing bias on asset purchases but kept the end […]

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Market Update

Sterling fell against the dollar today as the U.S. currency strengthened on the back of rising Treasury yields, while traders remained cautious ahead of British GDP numbers due on Friday. The economic growth release will be the last key data released before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting early next month, and markets […]

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Sterling hits fresh lows against the dollar

Sterling dropped to its lowest since level since the middle of March, its sixth consecutive daily fall as investors are worried about the performance of the British economy. April has historically proved to be supportive for the pound because of a seasonal rise in capital inflows into Britain from foreign companies paying UK shareholders dividends. […]

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Sterling hits a 2 week low

Sterling slipped to a two-week low against the dollar and Euro as investors questioned whether the Bank of England would raise interest rates in May following weaker-than-expected economic data and cautious comments from governor Mark Carney. The pound has been one of the best performing major currencies in 2018 and last week surged to its […]

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Carney comments hammer the pound!

BoE Governor Carney, in an interview last night, seemed somewhat less committal in regards to tightening policy in the UK, focusing more on the slow path in the coming years while suggesting that “a hike is likely this year”. The market has been near “fully priced” for a 25bp hike in May and a rising […]

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Retail Sales Miss Expectations

UK retail sales recorded their biggest quarterly fall in a year during the three months to March. We expected as much as the weather played a big part, keeping consumers at home. Retail sales volumes in March were 1.2 percent lower than the month before. For the first quarter, sales volumes dropped by 0.5 percent […]

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UK Inflation drops unexpectedly

UK inflation dropped to a one year low, according to figures which now raise doubts about a rate rise in May and further rises going forward. There is still a 96% chance of a UK rate rise in May and we believe this is already priced into the markets. Official data showed annual consumer price […]

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UK Wage Growth Stalls

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed today, the UK’s average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses matched expectations, arriving at 2.8% 3m y/y versus 2.6% last while the gauge including bonuses steadied at 2.8% 3m y/y versus 3.0% expected. The official jobless rate ticked lower to 4.2% in February, while the claimant count change increased more-than-expected. […]

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Pound continues to out perform

The pound rose today despite Britain’s military intervention in Syria, as investors focused on data that could help shore up expectations of a May interest rate hike. Britain struck Syria with cruise missiles on Saturday in partnership with Western allies, targeting chemical weapons facilities. Sterling rose, continuing a two-week rally against the dollar that on […]

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Sterling hits a 9 month high

Sterling has continued to gain against the euro, however, this could be affected next week when we have the UK wage data and employment figures released. We believe that wage growth including bonuses may slow slightly whereas the unemployment is expected to be up – both could have a negative impact on the pound. On […]

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